The news from the US is that revenue from self-paced e-learning is falling and will continue to fall, from a peak of $21.6 billion of 2015 to an anticipated $18.3 billion in 2018. Until recently, self-paced e-learning products were only in high demand in developed economies. Due to the rapid adoption of e-learning now taking place in developing economies and the explosion in the number of new suppliers, the game has changed significantly.
This needs to be seen in context. The spending appears to have shifted to other products, just a product substitution. In this case, that shift appears to be in favor of mobile products. This is consistent with the industry’s expectations for a preference for mobile devices, but the curtailing of training and educational budgets by organizations cannot be dismissed. Consequently, the reduction in budgets means buying more cost-effective technology. This entails more than just the adoption of self-paced products, but also the uptake of collaboration-based technologies, mobile learning, game-based learning, and simulation.
*Ambient Insight is an integrity-based market research firm that uses predictive analytics to identify revenue opportunities for global learning technology suppliers. It uses predictive analytics software and proprietary algorithms to triangulate measurable Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecasts.